IPL 2025: The Indian Premier League (IPL) 2025 season is entering its most exciting phase, with the playoff race getting tighter with every game. While no team has officially been knocked out yet, the chances for some look far brighter than others. Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) boosted their top-four hopes with a convincing 6-wicket win over Delhi Capitals (DC) on Sunday, and Grok AI (X AI) has shared the latest playoff qualification probabilities based on detailed simulations.
RCB’s recent surge has seen them climb to the top of the IPL 2025 points table. Grok AI predicts an 88% chance of playoff qualification for RCB, with the team expected to finish between 18-20 points (9-10 wins). However, with RCB’s history of late slip-ups, fans would want to remain cautiously optimistic.
Gujarat Titans (GT) are not far behind with an 82% chance of qualification. With six matches still in hand, GT could finish with 16-18 points. Delhi Capitals (DC), despite their defeat to RCB, hold a 70% chance of making it to the playoffs. A consistent campaign so far sees them in a comfortable spot with a potential finish of 16 points.
Mumbai Indians (MI) have stormed back into contention with five consecutive wins. Their playoff qualification probability stands at 65%, with predictions placing them at 14-16 points. However, the intense battle for the fourth spot means MI cannot afford any slip-ups in their remaining games.
Punjab Kings (PBKS) sit at a 50% probability. After a promising start to their campaign, recent setbacks have complicated their journey. PBKS could finish with 13-14 points, including one point from the no-result against KKR, and still have a fighting chance if they finish strongly.
Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) have just a 25% chance of making the playoffs. Despite strong performances from their top-order batters, they now face a must-win situation for their remaining matches.
Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR), the defending champions, have a slim 10% chance. They are reliant not only on their own results but also on favorable outcomes in other matches.
Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) and Rajasthan Royals (RR) are staring at elimination, with just 5% and 3% qualification chances respectively.
Meanwhile, Chennai Super Kings (CSK), led by MS Dhoni, are at the bottom with a 2% chance. Even winning all their remaining matches might not be enough for CSK to sneak into the top five.
The playoff probabilities were calculated using a Monte Carlo simulation, where the remaining matches of the season were simulated 10,000 times:
– Each team’s matches were simulated based on assigned win probabilities.
– Final points were calculated (2 points per win, 1 for no-result).
– Teams were ranked based on points and Net Run Rate (NRR) as a tiebreaker.
– The percentage of simulations where a team finished in the top four determined their playoff qualification chance.
