Retired Lieutenant General H S Panag has urged India to exercise strategic patience in responding to the Pahalgam terror attack, warning that hasty military action could serve Pakistan’s interests. In an opinion piece in ThePrint, Panag backed Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s firm intent to retaliate but advised that India must “keep Pakistan on tenterhooks for a prolonged period” and “let it ‘cry wolf’ until the day of reckoning, which must come like a thunderbolt.”
Citing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech in Bihar and his back-to-back high-level security meetings in Delhi, Lt Gen Panag said this clarity signals the inevitability of military action, but added that political constraints on timing and scale must be considered. “The die is cast for military action against Pakistan. The only questions now are when, how, and at what scale.”
Panag pointed out that past military actions — including the Kargil War, Operation Parakram, and the surgical and air strikes of 2016 and 2019 — have failed to deter Pakistan’s long-running proxy war in Kashmir. He outlined India’s doctrinal shift since the 1986 Sundarji Doctrine, where India adopted a ‘dissuasive deterrent’ posture against China and an ‘offensive deterrent’ posture against Pakistan. While this has worked in deterring direct Chinese aggression, it has had limited effect on Pakistan’s proxy warfare.
He warned that the element of surprise has now been lost and that Pakistan has mobilised its forces. “Any major offensive now would become a slogging match. This option now exists only as a preemptive strike, relying on strategic surprise in a longer time frame.”
According to Panag, India’s best option in the near term is a limited punitive response with controlled escalation — using air, missile, drone, or Special Forces strikes, and possibly LoC incursions. “Even a small incision in Pakistan’s ‘shah rag’ or jugular vein will hurt it the most.”
But he cautioned that Pakistan is prepared to retaliate and might even be trying to provoke India into a premature strike. “The Baisaran terrorist attack was a deliberately planned operation to provoke and lure India into taking a hasty military action.”
In conclusion, Panag called for outwitting Pakistan with delayed but decisive retaliation. “It may be prudent to keep Pakistan on tenterhooks for a prolonged period. Let it ‘cry wolf’ until the day of reckoning, which must come like a thunderbolt.”
Earlier, former Northern Army Commander Lt Gen (retd) D S Hooda also advised strategic patience, saying “revenge is best served cold”. “We need to calmly think through the situation. Let’s not be in any kind of haste. Pick and choose targets where we have almost 100% chance of success. Let’s do it at a time when we are fully prepared. Let’s not be in a hurry.”
Former Army Chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane has also advocated for targeted precision aimed at shifting Pakistan’s internal calculus: “What are the pain points that need to be struck to bring about the desired behavioural change? And who is the power behind the throne? These decisions are being taken by a small coterie within the Pakistani establishment, and that is where we should concentrate all our efforts.”
